Market Stats

Gartner: Smartphone Sales Growth Down to Single Digits in 2016

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Gartner reports global smartphone sales will show single-digit growth of 7% in 2016-- a first  marking an end to the era of double-digit smartphone growth according to the analyst.

Gartner forecast

Smartphone sales for 2016 are forecast to reach 1.5 billion units, while total mobile phone sales are set to reach 1.9bn. Also showing barely positive results is the combined device (PC, tablets, ultramobiles and mobile phones) market, as global shipments are expected to grow by just 0.6% to 2.4bn units in 2016, with end-user spending declining by -1.6%.

"Historically, worsening economic conditions had negligible impact on smartphone sales and spend, but this is no longer the case," Gartner remarks. "China and N America smartphone sales are on pace to be flat in 2016, exhibiting 0.7% and 0.4% growth respectively."

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IDC: Mature Markets Lead to Smartphone Slowdown

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According to IDC 2015 is "likely" to be the last year of double-digit global smartphone growth-- whereas 2015 shipments total 1.44 billion units with 10.4% growth, 2016 shipments are forecast to increase by just 5.7% to 1.5bn.

Mobile tracker IDC

Such a single-digit growth rate is expected to continue over the next 4 years, as the analyst forecasts volumes will grow to 1.92bn in 2020. In the meantime global ASPs will continue to drop (from $295 in 2015 to $237 in 2020), the result of volumes shifting to emerging markets such as MEA, India, Indonesia and S.E. Asia.

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Counterpoint on the MEA Smartphone Opportunity

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As smartphone demand in mature markets slows down Counterpoint Research says MEA is "the next frontier and key geography for smartphone growth," as Q3 2015 shipments are up by 31% Y-o-Y.

Such a growth is nearly 3x the global rate.

Apple Store UAE

"This region is not only huge geographically but is also quite diverse i.e. home to some of the most underpenetrated emerging as well as some richer mobile phone markets in the world," the analyst continues.

According to the analyst Samsung currently dominates MEA thanks to a "stronger pan-MEA distribution network," even if the S. Korean giant is losing market share (Q3 2015 share totals 41.1%, down from 49.8% in Q3 2014). Huawei takes second place with 9.3% market share, followed by Africa-based Tecno taking over 8.2% market share through "competitive mid-tier smartphones."

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Flurry: Apple Dominates Holiday Shopping Season

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According to Flurry Insights iDevices account for 49.1% of mobile device activations during the 2015 holiday season, at least as based on the 780000 apps tracked by the mobile analytics firm.

Flurry Insights mobiles

The figure is down from the 51.3% seen in 2014, but still shows Apple as a clear winner-- in comparison 2nd placing Samsung claims 19.8% share, up from 17.7% in 2014 thanks to strong Galaxy Grand Prime, Core Prime and S6 sales. Meanwhile Microsoft Lumia loses share as it drops from 5.8% to 2%, and LG follows at 1.7%.

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Gartner: Less Customers Plan to Buy Tablets

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According to Gartner less customers in mature markets are thinking of buying a tablet in the next 12 months-- in fact, just 17% of survey respondents plan to do so, and such numbers will only fall in 2016.

tabletsThe survey covers 19000 consumers in the US, UK, France, China, Brazil and India, and shows less than 1 in 5 users in mature markets plan to purchase or upgrade a tablet.

"Unless new compelling innovation or incentives to upgrade tablets are created, the churn of the mature installed base will continue to fall," the analyst says. "The worst-case scenario is that many tablet users will never upgrade or buy a new tablet as phablets and/or two-in-one convertible PCs (both with larger screen) envelop the benefits of a tablet. This scenario would result in real household penetration for tablets falling under 40% in mature markets."

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