Market Stats

Quo Vadis GPS?

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With TomTom very much in the news for supplementing its income via selling road data so Dutch police could set better speed traps for motorists, we thought it is time to explore the direction of the GPS industry....

GarminLike the mythical Icarus, one day the Portable Navigation Device (PND) industry sprouted wings and took to flying high...My most vivid recollection is on stage at an industry panel I was moderating, listening to Greg Spierkel, the CEO of Ingram Micro, explain to the audience about this exciting category of product that grew 70% in year-to-year sales...

It was PND, of course...and yes, that was a few years ago now. But sales were strong enough to register in a big way even on Ingram Micros billion-dollar stock scores.

Like Icarus, who flew too close to the sun, had his wings burned and dropped...you could argue that GPS was so successful with PNDs that they caught the attention of the bigger smartphone and mobile device makers who started to include GPS in their product offerings.

With the wings burnt off, poor PND could no longer fly and had to take the same bus that most CE products catch to follow the road to sales. Garmin reports "...the overall market for PNDs is decreasing, and in No. America the market decreased more rapidly than industry experts predicted."

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Which is the EU5's Biggest Mobile Platform?

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ComScor says the EU5's (UK, Germany, France, Spain and Italy) biggest mobile platform is Apple's iOS-- with a combined platform reach of 28.9m users (divided across all iDevices), with 12.4% of mobile subscribers

Google's Android is at second place (divided across all Android devices), with 13.5m users and 5.7% mobile subscriber share. 

mobile ownership


When it comes to actual smartphone ownership, Nokia retains its leadership within the EU5, with it owning 41.7% of the market. At second place is Apple, at 20.6%, followed by Samsung (9.1%), RIM (8.7%) and Sony Ericsson (4.4%).

Interestingly, the analyst's numbers also suggest iPad ownership goes beyond the Apple affacionados-- while 27.2% of iPad owners also use iPhones, 26.4% use Nokia phones. Bucking the trend are Blackberry users, who might be waiting out for the Playbook's launch. 

The smartphone demographic also appears to skew towards male consumers, with 58.8% of smartphone (and 62.4% of iPad) owners being male.

Go ComScore EU5 MobiLens Results

Strong Future for NFC?

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NFCPyramid Research predicts 28% of WW smartphones-- a total of 250m handsets-- will be NFC-enabled by 2015 as more companies seek to invest in the technology. 

Such companies include Google, Visa, MasterCard and Barclays. 

The analyst says an overwhelming supply of NFC-enabled handsets should result in strong short-term (2011-2012) sales for such devices. As NFC-based services become more ubiquitous, consistent and secure, sales of NFC-enabled devices will continue growing-- only this time with growing demand driving sales. 

Skeptics however do have their concerns-- particularly due to a lack of both industry standards and profitable (and attractive) business models. Others still say customers lack interest in such services. 

Go NFC-Enabled Smartphones to Account for 28% of Global Market by 2015

Apple's Grip on the Tablet Market

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Apple will continue owning the majority of the WW tablet market-- as it does nowadays-- at least up til through 2015, according to Gartner. 69% of tablets will carry iOS by 2011's end, and 47% of the market will in 2015.

Tablet Market

Gartner says most other vendors competing against Apple fail to give customers what they really want-- apps, services and slick user experiences. Instead, such vendors prefer to concentrate on hardware features, just as they did when competing against iOS on smartphones.

The analyst forecasts further growth for Android, from 20% WW tablet marketshare in 2011 to 39% in 2015. Google's decision (for the moment) to close down Honeycomb to all but a select group of developers is something of a double edged sword-- on one hand it will prevent fragmentation (and supposedly drive more control), on the other it will slow down price decline, thus capping its market share.

RIM's migration of its entire Blackberry portfolio to QNX (the Playbook OS) should offer customers a single consistent experience-- at least once the Playbook hits the market.

Finally, MeeGo and WebOS will remain stuck with limited customer appeal until they also manage to grow within the smartphone market.

Go Gartner Says Apple iOS to Dominate Tablet Market Through 2015

Android to Continue Further Growth

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As W.W. smartphones sales reach 468m units by 2011's end (a 57% increase over 2010), Android will become the world's most popular mobile OS with its user base accounting for 49% of the smartphone market by 2012.

Mobile Market













Gartner's latest report on the state of the smartphone market says open OS devices will account for 26% of all mobile handset sales in 2011. In 2015, their sales should surpass the 1BN mark, and account for 47% of the total mobile device market. 

Vendors' fight for Android market share will result in customer benefits, as prices decrease further and further. Gartner says Android's greatest long term volume opportunity will be in the mid- to low-cost smartphone market, particularly in emerging markets. 

Apple's iOS will remain the world's second biggest platform up til 2014, even ifs marketshare declines somewhat after 2011. Meanwhile RIM's forecast is relatively gloomy, with marketshare declining as RIM migrates from BlackBerry OS to QNX. 

Finally, Nokia will drive Windows Phone to the 3rd W.W. position by 2013-- an impressive performance, but still less than what Nokia achieved with Symbian back in its heyday. 

Go Android to Command Nearly Half of W.W. Smartphone OS Market by 2012