According to Gartner, global smartphone sales are to total 1.5 billion units in 2019, a -2.5% decline-- but the market should return to growth in 2020, thanks to the broader availability of 5G models and related service packages.
W. Europe is to see the second worst decline (-5.3%) in smartphone sales, following Japan (-6.5%). All mature markets face an oversupplied and commoditised smartphone market, with higher ASPs and no compelling utility or experiences for users to upgrade to. While high-end smartphone ASP increases have slowed down recently, vendors relying on replacement smartphone sales are still facing tough times.
The analyst expects Apple to launch the first 5G iPhone in 2020, enticing iPhone owners to upgrade, while various communications service providers (CSPs) all over the world promote 5G service packages. That said, 5G smartphones sales will remain small in 2019, and will only ramp up in H2 2020 as coverage and availability of 5G hardware services improve. Thus, Gartner forecasts 5G smartphone sales will top 15 million in 2019, less than 1% of total smartphones for the year.
Gartner predicts H2 2019 to continue on the trend of decline seen in H1 2019, even if the (partially lifted) ban on Huawei should create at least some opportunities in the W. European market. However the situation remains unclear for the company, leading to challenges in EMEA, even if Huawei should remain the leader in its home Chinese market.
Go Gartner Forecast: Mobile Phones WW 2017-2023 Q2 2019 Update